2020 Election Poll

I’m conducting a poll of my own to see whether my data is consistent with national polling.  In 2016 I correctly predicted the outcomes while the national polls were off by an average of more than 5%.

You may share this link with your friends, but please do not vote more than once.  Thank you in advance.

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Here’s What the Polling Says About Trump

My online poll, which ran for five days and received more than 1,000 entries from all 50 states, produced the following data:

  1. Among those who did not vote in 2016, 67% of them intend to vote for Trump.  Only 11% chose Biden.
  2. Among those who voted for Trump in 2016, 97% intend to vote for him in 2020.
  3. Among those who voted for Clinton in 2016, 78% intend to vote for Biden in 2020.
  4. Among those who voted third party in 2016, 49% intend to vote for Trump and 11% intend to vote for Biden.
  5. 6% of black voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020
  6. 8% of Latino voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020
  7. 3% of white voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020.

Among Republican voters, the top three issues they identified as their priorities:

  1. Ending abortion
  2. Federal Judicial appointments
  3. Reducing Taxes

Some conclusions:

  1. There is no indication of a lack of support for Trump among Republicans.
  2. There is considerable evidence that Trump will do better among minorities than he did in 2016
  3. There is some evidence of a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for Biden.
  4. Polls showing a double-digit Biden advantage cannot be trusted.  Either the pollsters are lying, the respondents are lying or the statistical weighting decisions (turnout expectations) are unrealistic.
  5. Polling in 2016 almost unanimously predicted a Hillary
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The Lie of “The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing But the Truth”

Clerk of the Court: Do you promise to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, so help you God?

Witness for the plaintiff: No

CC: What?

Witness: No. I said “No.”

Judge: Sir, am I to understand that you are not willing to tell the truth in this matter?

W: My objection is to the oath. My faith tells me not to take oaths, but to say yes when I mean yes and no when I mean no.

Judge: Very well. If we eliminate the words “so help you God” will that satisfy you?

W: Well, it’s a start, but I still have an objection.

J: To what?

W: I object to the phrase “the whole truth.” It’s vague.

J: No one has ever had that objection before. Why do you, now?

W: I am sure that the prosecutor has coached his witnesses to tell the truth, but no more than is absolutely necessary to avoid revealing anything that might be exculpatory. I am sure the police and other investigators have been similar coaching.

J: Are you suggesting that there is anything improper in the prosecution’s presentation of his case?

W: I simply want to avail myself of the same opportunity, namely, to tell the truth, but no more of it as seems prudent.

J: You’ve heard many other witnesses in this case take the oath to which you reject. None of them have presented any objections, much less those to which you object. Doesn’t that … Read the rest