Here’s What the Polling Says About Trump

Posted on by Jeff Cassman

My online poll, which ran for five days and received more than 1,000 entries from all 50 states, produced the following data:

  1. Among those who did not vote in 2016, 67% of them intend to vote for Trump.  Only 11% chose Biden.
  2. Among those who voted for Trump in 2016, 97% intend to vote for him in 2020.
  3. Among those who voted for Clinton in 2016, 78% intend to vote for Biden in 2020.
  4. Among those who voted third party in 2016, 49% intend to vote for Trump and 11% intend to vote for Biden.
  5. 6% of black voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020
  6. 8% of Latino voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020
  7. 3% of white voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020.

Among Republican voters, the top three issues they identified as their priorities:

  1. Ending abortion
  2. Federal Judicial appointments
  3. Reducing Taxes

Some conclusions:

  1. There is no indication of a lack of support for Trump among Republicans.
  2. There is considerable evidence that Trump will do better among minorities than he did in 2016
  3. There is some evidence of a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for Biden.
  4. Polls showing a double-digit Biden advantage cannot be trusted.  Either the pollsters are lying, the respondents are lying or the statistical weighting decisions (turnout expectations) are unrealistic.
  5. Polling in 2016 almost unanimously predicted a Hillary victory by high single-digits; her actual popular vote win was only 3%.  The average margin of error for their polls was 5%.
  6. Pollsters who were wrong in 2016 had a very high confidence level in their results the day before the election.
  7. Presidents are elected by the electoral college, not the popular vote; the result of the electoral votes in these states (Trump won all but MN in 2016), will determine the election:
    1. Wisconsin
    2. Michigan
    3. Minnesota
    4. Pennsylvania
    5. Ohio
    6. North Carolina
    7. Florida
    8. Arizona
  8. Polls are political weapons used by committees and candidates to influence public opinion, set news narratives and raise money.

 

 

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