My online poll, which ran for five days and received more than 1,000 entries from all 50 states, produced the following data:
- Among those who did not vote in 2016, 67% of them intend to vote for Trump. Only 11% chose Biden.
- Among those who voted for Trump in 2016, 97% intend to vote for him in 2020.
- Among those who voted for Clinton in 2016, 78% intend to vote for Biden in 2020.
- Among those who voted third party in 2016, 49% intend to vote for Trump and 11% intend to vote for Biden.
- 6% of black voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020
- 8% of Latino voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020
- 3% of white voters who say they voted for Clinton in 2016 intend to vote for Trump in 2020.
Among Republican voters, the top three issues they identified as their priorities:
- Ending abortion
- Federal Judicial appointments
- Reducing Taxes
- There is no indication of a lack of support for Trump among Republicans.
- There is considerable evidence that Trump will do better among minorities than he did in 2016
- There is some evidence of a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for Biden.
- Polls showing a double-digit Biden advantage cannot be trusted. Either the pollsters are lying, the respondents are lying or the statistical weighting decisions (turnout expectations) are unrealistic.
- Polling in 2016 almost unanimously predicted a Hillary victory by high single-digits; her actual popular vote win was only 3%. The average margin of error for their polls was 5%.
- Pollsters who were wrong in 2016 had a very high confidence level in their results the day before the election.
- Presidents are elected by the electoral college, not the popular vote; the result of the electoral votes in these states (Trump won all but MN in 2016), will determine the election:
- North Carolina
- Polls are political weapons used by committees and candidates to influence public opinion, set news narratives and raise money.